Saturday, December 6, 2008

The domino effect may lead to global recession.

Economic crisis in the United States was effecting to whole economics in the world. This crisis started from housing market in August 2007. Almost homeowners with High-risk loans were not paying back to the banks. When home prices fell under home's worth, then homeowners could not sell their home to pay loans. Banks foreclosured homes to fell payments. During August 2007 to October 2008, banks were foreclosure 936,439 homes. This was cause of financial crisis.
First, big two mortgage company are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac with total worth mortgages $ 5,000 billion were close to collapse. Government was helping $ 200 billion to keep healthy. Next, Bearsteam sold off. In September 15, Lehman Brothers collapsed, Merrill Lynch sold with cheap price. Financial market was starting crisis. Financial market lost 22 banks in 2008, 171 banks may be bankruptcy. Wall Street was destroying terrible. Second, financial crisis was effecting some area of economy. To keep healthy, banks have tighter rules for lending money. That mean business have a harder time borrowing, and they were starting to cut down business. Consumers not easy to brow money from the banks, and they were spending less than before. Even, the banks decreased for lend each other. This was making economy slow down and starting recession. Notice of the U.S National Bureau of Economic Research; " U.S has been recession since December 2007". Unemployment rate in 2008 soared 6.7%, in September lost 159,000 jobs, October lost 240,000 jobs, and in November labor market lost 533,000 jobs. Total in 2008 unemployment is over 1.9 million. The banks decreased for lending consumers was cause consumers credit dropped $ 3.6 billion in October. Federal reserve says "borrowing by consumers fell 1.6% in the month". Also, businesses were very hard to loans and they were cutting down, in August news factory oders dropped 4%, that was the biggest drop in two years.
Recently, Automakers market effected of crisis. Big three are General Motor - Ford - Chrystal were very hardly to maintaining business. Automakers were pleading Congress past the law $ 34 billion bailout loans in order to avoid bankruptcy. The domino effect of financial crisis was covering whole economy. The economy work weakly, unemployment rate soared, this is cause making housing market more worse.
Most important, economic crisis made in the U.S was domino effect to global recession. Some big financial central in the world entered crisis. Government of 27 countries in Europe were cutting rate lending. ECB was cut down rate from 3.25% to 2.5%, this is cut down the biggest in 10 years. Together ECB, Bank of England(BoE) was cutting rate from 3% to 2%, this is rate the lowest from 1951. Bank of Swissland was cutting rate from 2.75% to 2%. Recently, Russia stopped trading for two days, and Russia's government planned billions to help stock market and bank system. In the third quarter, Australia grow slowly rate 0.1%. In the Asia, Japan is the world's second largest economy was slow down in the third quarter 0.1%. Some countries like Korea- Singapo - twain were domino effect crisis. China is a country has saving over $ 2,000 billion in 2008 starting grow slow, China's government was cut down rate three times a month. Also China's government planning $600 billion to help maintaining grow economy.
How was U.S government resolving economic crisis? October 4, Congress was past the law $ 700 billion to helping financial market. Government helped Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac $ 200 billion. FED planned $ 800 billion to maintaining and stimulus consumers. The government declared program $ 300 billion to help mortgages 30 years. To help businesses, government cut tax $ 68 billion. Also president-elect Obama was planning $ 500-$ 700 billion to stimulus economy and 2.5 million jobs in two years.
What will happen in 2009? Economy picture will more worse, unemployment rate will higher, home prices will fall down more. Oil price will under $ 30 a barrel. Economy in the U.S will grow up in first quarter 2010.
How long will the recession last? "The prediction about this recession lasting through mid 2009" Anthony Karydakis said. He is a former chief U.S economy for JP. Morgan asset management and currentcy an adjunct professional at New York University's stern school of business.